We've now seen one week of the new Administration, and so we know Mr. Trump was not kidding about his extreme promises. This will not be a good year for employees. The only thing I'm sure of is that we really have no idea what will happen this year. But I'll do my best to predict the unpredictable:
Executive orders: Okay, this wasn't a hard one since it's already started. We'll see lots of executive orders curtailing employee rights, LGBT rights and women's rights. I've already made some predictions about what regulations Trump will scrub, and the reversal of protections for employees of federal contractors.
Obamacare gone: I've written about what will happen with the end of Obamacare, and the resulting end of nursing breaks if Obamacare is repealed. This is already starting to happen.
Marijuana jailings: I've also written about what will happen if the Feds start to enforce marijuana laws. I stand by my predictions, despite being called a fear-mongerer.
LGBT rights curtailed: We've started to see this already. A bill to allow LGBT discrimination on religious grounds has been introduced and Trump promises to sign it. They are likely planning to overturn President Obama's order on LGBT discrimination regarding federal contractors. There will be attempts to overturn gay marriage altogether, and to at least treat it as a second class kind of marriage where clerks can refuse to perform ceremonies. We may see an attempt at a federal bathroom bill similar to the obnoxious North Carolina bill. We'll see states moving to curtail LGBT rights, but we'll also see some states moving to protect them. There will be a true red/blue dichotomy. Florida will be a state that remains unfriendly to the LGBT community, and our legislature will feel emboldened to trample on rights.
Muslim discrimination: Already, Trump has attempted to keep even permanent residents who happen to be Muslim from re-entering the country after traveling for funerals and education. This will affect employees who have to travel for work. Many Muslims will lose their jobs when they can no longer safely leave the country. The blatant acts of discrimination by the Administration will embolden racists who feel they have the right to discriminate against brown people. This will be a horrible, horrible year to be Muslim. Some states will try to step up protections for Muslim people. The blatant discrimination will also help recruiting efforts for terrorist organizations.
Sex discrimination: There will be active attempts to ban abortion rights for women. This will turn women into second-class citizens. It's only a matter of time, once abortion becomes illegal again, that sexist politicians will turn their eyes on other aspects of women's reproductive and health issues. Once women can't control their own bodies without political interference, they will be hampered in their careers. There is a whole scary element of the Trump regime that believes women shouldn't work, so don't expect any pro-female laws. We may see some attempts to reverse sexual harassment and other protections for women, but I don't think this will happen immediately. They will be too busy harassing gays and Muslims this year.
EEOC changes priorities: EEOC is already backing down on lawsuits involving transgender rights. They will stop pushing cases where they have asserted that Title VII protects against LGBT discrimination, so it will be up to employee-side employment attorneys to push the issue. Also gone will be arguments that banning hire of those with criminal records has a disparate impact on race/national origin.
No help with overtime: President Obama's attempt to expand overtime and update antique standards for overtime will be overturned.
Non-Christians: Religious discrimination laws protect all religions and sincerely held beliefs, but there will be a push to marginalize any protections for anyone who is not Christian. Those who believe the U.S. is a Christian nation will push to force us all into their narrow religious beliefs. It will become open season on non-Christians.
This is truly the most depressing set of predictions I've ever made. And I could go on. I think very few other than rich white males will have a good year, employment law-wise. I'm hoping the resistance will stay strong, but I still fear that, with the House, Senate, Presidency and soon the Supreme Court under the thumb of right-wing conservatives, we are in for a very bad year. I really most sincerely hope I am wrong.
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